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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Canadian Premier League · Semi-finals

Cavalry FC

CAV

Supra du Québec

SUP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Cavalry FC66%
Draw21%
Supra du Québec13%

Expected goals

2.03 – 0.81

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–012.5%
  • 2–012.0%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–19.5%
  • 3–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession51%
35%Territory49%
8.3%Directness7.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cavalry FC, 3 for Supra du Québec. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 11 of 114 matches, not the full season.