Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 24
Al Nassr FC
ALN
Al Khaleej
ALK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Nassr FC71%
Draw18%
Al Khaleej11%
Expected goals
2.35 – 0.88
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.1%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.3%
- 1–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession52%
43%Territory41%
33%From set plays34%
0.15Chance quality0.13
4.7%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Nassr FC, 4 for Al Khaleej. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.