Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 24
Al Kholood
ALO
Al Riyadh
ALR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Kholood59%
Draw21%
Al Riyadh20%
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.31
Over 2.5
68%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–17.0%
- 1–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession46%
40%Territory37%
13%From set plays14%
0.18Chance quality0.08
5.7%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Kholood, 3 for Al Riyadh. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.