Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 24
Al Ittihad
ALI
Al-Faisaly
ALL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ittihad67%
Draw20%
Al-Faisaly13%
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.91
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.9%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession49%
47%Territory35%
9%From set plays19%
0.14Chance quality0.11
5.3%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ittihad, 5 for Al-Faisaly. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.