Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 24
Al Hazem
ALZ
Al Ahli
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Hazem14%
Draw18%
Al Ahli68%
Expected goals
1.11 – 2.46
Over 2.5
68%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–17.8%
- 0–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession52%
40%Territory45%
24%From set plays20%
0.12Chance quality0.21
5.0%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Hazem, 3 for Al Ahli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al Hazem
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.