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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 24

Abha

ABH

Al Diriyah

ALD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Abha35%
Draw31%
Al Diriyah34%

Expected goals

1.11 – 1.10

Over 2.5

38%

Both to score

46%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.5%
  • 0–012.4%
  • 1–012.2%
  • 0–112.1%
  • 2–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

43%Possession49%
38%Territory44%
23%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.11
8.0%Directness7.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Abha, 4 for Al Diriyah.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.