Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 24
Abha
ABH
Al Diriyah
ALD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Abha35%
Draw31%
Al Diriyah34%
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.10
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.4%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–112.1%
- 2–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession49%
38%Territory44%
23%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.11
8.0%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Abha, 4 for Al Diriyah.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.