Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 23
Neom SC
NEO
Al Hilal
ALH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Neom SC14%
Draw25%
Al Hilal61%
Expected goals
0.72 – 1.68
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
42%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–115.8%
- 0–212.6%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–09.9%
- 1–29.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession59%
40%Territory54%
17%From set plays28%
0.09Chance quality0.15
6.4%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Neom SC, 3 for Al Hilal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.