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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 23

Neom SC

NEO

Al Hilal

ALH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Neom SC21%
Draw25%
Al Hilal54%

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.73

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 0111.4%
  • 1111.3%
  • 129.8%
  • 029.2%
  • 007.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession58%
42%Territory48%
35%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.18
7.9%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Neom SC, 5 for Al Hilal.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.