Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 23
Al-Fayha
ALF
Al Ittihad
ALI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al-Fayha24%
Draw26%
Al Ittihad50%
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.60
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.6%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession53%
32%Territory47%
12%From set plays9%
0.09Chance quality0.11
6.8%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al-Fayha, 4 for Al Ittihad.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.