Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 23
Al-Fayha
ALF
Al Ittihad
ALI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al-Fayha18%
Draw23%
Al Ittihad59%
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.88
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–111.4%
- 1–110.5%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession56%
33%Territory47%
17%From set plays9%
0.09Chance quality0.14
5.1%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al-Fayha, 3 for Al Ittihad. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.