Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 23
Al Ahli
ALA
Al Qadsiah
ALQ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli44%
Draw25%
Al Qadsiah32%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.49
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession57%
44%Territory44%
14%From set plays13%
0.17Chance quality0.18
5.3%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Al Ahli, 4 for Al Qadsiah.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.