Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 23
Al Ahli
ALA
Al Qadsiah
ALQ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli43%
Draw24%
Al Qadsiah34%
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.68
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
70%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.3%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–05.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Al Qadsiah will have the ball; Al Ahli will not mind.
52%Possession61%
45%Territory52%
20%From set plays9%
0.21Chance quality0.14
5.5%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ahli, 4 for Al Qadsiah. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.