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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 23

Al Ahli

ALA

Al Qadsiah

ALQ

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Ahli43%
Draw24%
Al Qadsiah34%

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.68

Over 2.5

67%

Both to score

70%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.3%
  • 2–18.4%
  • 1–27.4%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 1–05.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Al Qadsiah will have the ball; Al Ahli will not mind.

52%Possession61%
45%Territory52%
20%From set plays9%
0.21Chance quality0.14
5.5%Directness3.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ahli, 4 for Al Qadsiah. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.