Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 22
Al Riyadh
ALR
Al Ahli
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Riyadh11%
Draw16%
Al Ahli73%
Expected goals
1.04 – 2.71
Over 2.5
71%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.0%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–37.7%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession52%
37%Territory45%
14%From set plays20%
0.08Chance quality0.21
5.9%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Riyadh, 3 for Al Ahli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.