Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 22
Al Riyadh
ALR
Al Ahli
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Riyadh14%
Draw20%
Al Ahli66%
Expected goals
0.96 – 2.22
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–18.8%
- 1–37.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Al Ahli will have the ball; Al Riyadh will not mind.
38%Possession53%
27%Territory44%
39%From set plays14%
0.07Chance quality0.17
7.7%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Riyadh, 5 for Al Ahli.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.