Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 22
Al Kholood
ALO
Al-Fayha
ALF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Kholood54%
Draw23%
Al-Fayha23%
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.24
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession48%
40%Territory33%
13%From set plays17%
0.18Chance quality0.09
5.7%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Kholood, 4 for Al-Fayha. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.