Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 22
Al Hilal
ALH
Al Shabab
ALS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Hilal72%
Draw17%
Al Shabab11%
Expected goals
2.39 – 0.87
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.2%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.5%
- 1–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession57%
54%Territory42%
28%From set plays31%
0.15Chance quality0.15
4.6%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Hilal, 3 for Al Shabab. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al Hilal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.