Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 21
Al Diriyah
ALD
Al-Ettifaq
ALE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Diriyah38%
Draw28%
Al-Ettifaq34%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.29
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession49%
44%Territory41%
18%From set plays30%
0.11Chance quality0.12
7.0%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Diriyah, 4 for Al-Ettifaq.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.