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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 21

Al-Taawoun

ALW

Al Nassr FC

ALN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al-Taawoun13%
Draw20%
Al Nassr FC67%

Expected goals

0.89 – 2.19

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–211.1%
  • 0–110.6%
  • 1–29.8%
  • 1–18.9%
  • 0–37.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession60%
44%Territory55%
13%From set plays26%
0.10Chance quality0.10
6.3%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al-Taawoun, 4 for Al Nassr FC.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.