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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 21

Al Shabab

ALS

Al Hazem

ALZ

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Shabab43%
Draw26%
Al Hazem31%

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.30

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.8%
  • 109.4%
  • 219.0%
  • 017.7%
  • 127.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession44%
47%Territory43%
19%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.11
5.6%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Shabab, 4 for Al Hazem.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.