Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 21
Al Hilal
ALH
Al Khaleej
ALK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Hilal79%
Draw15%
Al Khaleej7%
Expected goals
2.52 – 0.65
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
45%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–013.5%
- 1–011.1%
- 3–011.0%
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession52%
54%Territory41%
28%From set plays34%
0.15Chance quality0.13
4.6%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Hilal, 4 for Al Khaleej. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al Hilal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.