Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 21
Abha
ABH
Al-Fayha
ALF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Abha37%
Draw30%
Al-Fayha33%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.14
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–011.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession48%
34%Territory32%
8%From set plays12%
0.09Chance quality0.09
7.4%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Abha, 4 for Al-Fayha.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.