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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 21

Abha

ABH

Al-Fayha

ALF

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Abha37%
Draw30%
Al-Fayha33%

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.14

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1113.3%
  • 1011.8%
  • 0011.0%
  • 0111.0%
  • 217.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

42%Possession48%
34%Territory32%
8%From set plays12%
0.09Chance quality0.09
7.4%Directness6.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Abha, 4 for Al-Fayha.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.