Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 21
Abha
ABH
Al-Fayha
ALF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Abha40%
Draw31%
Al-Fayha30%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.03
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession48%
38%Territory33%
23%From set plays17%
0.09Chance quality0.09
8.0%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Abha, 4 for Al-Fayha.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.