Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 21
Al Ahli
ALA
Al Kholood
ALK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli67%
Draw19%
Al Kholood14%
Expected goals
2.31 – 0.99
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession51%
44%Territory43%
14%From set plays20%
0.17Chance quality0.16
5.3%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Al Ahli, 4 for Al Kholood.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.