Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 21
Al Ahli
ALA
Al Kholood
ALO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli75%
Draw14%
Al Kholood11%
Expected goals
3.05 – 1.19
Over 2.5
78%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 3–18.2%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–07.1%
- 3–06.9%
- 4–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession50%
45%Territory40%
20%From set plays13%
0.21Chance quality0.18
5.5%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ahli, 3 for Al Kholood. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.