Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 20
Al Qadsiah
ALQ
Neom SC
NEO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Qadsiah61%
Draw23%
Neom SC16%
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.90
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.1%
- 2–010.9%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession55%
52%Territory40%
9%From set plays17%
0.14Chance quality0.09
3.0%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Qadsiah, 4 for Neom SC.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al Qadsiah
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.