Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 20
Al Nassr FC
ALN
Al-Ettifaq
ALE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Nassr FC74%
Draw17%
Al-Ettifaq9%
Expected goals
2.43 – 0.79
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–012.0%
- 1–010.3%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession54%
55%Territory48%
26%From set plays19%
0.10Chance quality0.08
6.0%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Nassr FC, 4 for Al-Ettifaq.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.