Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 20
Al Nassr FC
ALN
Al-Ettifaq
ALE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Nassr FC74%
Draw16%
Al-Ettifaq10%
Expected goals
2.53 – 0.85
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–09.1%
- 3–09.0%
- 3–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession49%
43%Territory41%
33%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.12
4.7%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Nassr FC, 4 for Al-Ettifaq. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.