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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 20

Al Nassr FC

ALN

Al-Ettifaq

ALE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Nassr FC74%
Draw17%
Al-Ettifaq9%

Expected goals

2.43 – 0.79

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-1.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 2012.0%
  • 1010.3%
  • 309.4%
  • 219.3%
  • 317.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

60%Possession54%
55%Territory48%
26%From set plays19%
0.10Chance quality0.08
6.0%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Nassr FC, 4 for Al-Ettifaq.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.