Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 20
Al Kholood
ALO
Al Diriyah
ALD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Kholood48%
Draw25%
Al Diriyah28%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.33
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession49%
40%Territory44%
13%From set plays18%
0.18Chance quality0.11
5.7%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Kholood, 4 for Al Diriyah. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.