Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 20
Al Ahli
ALA
Al Hilal
ALH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli26%
Draw25%
Al Hilal49%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.76
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession59%
45%Territory54%
20%From set plays28%
0.21Chance quality0.15
5.5%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ahli, 3 for Al Hilal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.