Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 20
Al Ahli
ALA
Al Hilal
ALH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli34%
Draw25%
Al Hilal41%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.68
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession58%
44%Territory48%
14%From set plays24%
0.17Chance quality0.18
5.3%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Al Ahli, 5 for Al Hilal.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.