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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 19

Al Ittihad

ALI

Al Qadsiah

ALQ

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Ittihad34%
Draw25%
Al Qadsiah41%

Expected goals

1.51 – 1.66

Over 2.5

60%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 2–17.8%
  • 0–17.5%
  • 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

56%Possession61%
47%Territory52%
9%From set plays9%
0.14Chance quality0.14
5.3%Directness3.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ittihad, 4 for Al Qadsiah. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.