Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 19
Al Ittihad
ALI
Al Qadsiah
ALQ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ittihad34%
Draw25%
Al Qadsiah41%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession61%
47%Territory52%
9%From set plays9%
0.14Chance quality0.14
5.3%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ittihad, 4 for Al Qadsiah. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.