Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 19
Abha
ABH
Al Ahli
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Abha14%
Draw20%
Al Ahli66%
Expected goals
0.89 – 2.13
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–211.2%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–37.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Al Ahli will have the ball; Abha will not mind.
43%Possession52%
38%Territory45%
23%From set plays20%
0.09Chance quality0.21
8.0%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Abha, 3 for Al Ahli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.