Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 18
Al Riyadh
ALR
Al-Ettifaq
ALE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Riyadh30%
Draw26%
Al-Ettifaq44%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.64
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.3%
- 1–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Al-Ettifaq get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession49%
37%Territory41%
14%From set plays30%
0.08Chance quality0.12
5.9%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Riyadh, 4 for Al-Ettifaq. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.