Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 18
Al Qadsiah
ALQ
Al Shabab
ALS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Qadsiah60%
Draw20%
Al Shabab20%
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.30
Over 2.5
68%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–17.1%
- 1–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Al Shabab get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
61%Possession57%
52%Territory42%
9%From set plays31%
0.14Chance quality0.15
3.0%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Qadsiah, 3 for Al Shabab. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al Qadsiah
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.