Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 18
Al Kholood
ALO
Al Ittihad
ALI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Kholood25%
Draw22%
Al Ittihad53%
Expected goals
1.40 – 2.05
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.4%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–17.1%
- 0–26.7%
- 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession56%
40%Territory47%
13%From set plays9%
0.18Chance quality0.14
5.7%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Kholood, 3 for Al Ittihad. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.