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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 18

Al Kholood

ALK

Al Ittihad

ALI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Kholood32%
Draw27%
Al Ittihad42%

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.52

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.9%
  • 019.4%
  • 128.9%
  • 108.0%
  • 217.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

51%Possession53%
43%Territory47%
20%From set plays9%
0.16Chance quality0.11
6.0%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Kholood, 4 for Al Ittihad.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.