Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 18
Al Hazem
ALZ
Abha
ABH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Hazem43%
Draw29%
Abha28%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.07
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–09.8%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession43%
40%Territory38%
24%From set plays23%
0.12Chance quality0.09
5.0%Directness8.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Hazem, 4 for Abha.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al Hazem
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.