Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 18
Al-Fayha
ALF
Neom SC
NEO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al-Fayha25%
Draw30%
Neom SC45%
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.33
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.0%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–011.5%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–28.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession55%
33%Territory40%
17%From set plays17%
0.09Chance quality0.09
5.1%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al-Fayha, 4 for Neom SC.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.