Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 18
Al Ahli
ALA
Al Diriyah
ALD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli74%
Draw16%
Al Diriyah10%
Expected goals
2.55 – 0.88
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–08.8%
- 3–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession49%
45%Territory44%
20%From set plays18%
0.21Chance quality0.11
5.5%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ahli, 4 for Al Diriyah. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.