Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 17
Neom SC
NEO
Al Ahli
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Neom SC29%
Draw26%
Al Ahli45%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.59
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–27.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Neom SC get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession53%
42%Territory44%
35%From set plays14%
0.09Chance quality0.17
7.9%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Neom SC, 5 for Al Ahli.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.