Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 17
Neom SC
NEO
Al Ahli
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Neom SC26%
Draw26%
Al Ahli48%
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.63
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession52%
40%Territory45%
17%From set plays20%
0.09Chance quality0.21
6.4%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Neom SC, 3 for Al Ahli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.