Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 17
Al Diriyah
ALD
Al Shabab
ALS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Diriyah25%
Draw25%
Al Shabab50%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.76
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–06.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession57%
44%Territory42%
18%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.15
7.0%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Diriyah, 3 for Al Shabab. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.