Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 17
Al Nassr FC
ALN
Al Hilal
ALH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Nassr FC30%
Draw28%
Al Hilal42%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.46
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession59%
43%Territory54%
33%From set plays28%
0.15Chance quality0.15
4.7%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Nassr FC, 3 for Al Hilal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.