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Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 17

Al Nassr FC

ALN

Al Hilal

ALH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Nassr FC39%
Draw27%
Al Hilal34%

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.37

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.0%
  • 109.0%
  • 218.6%
  • 018.3%
  • 127.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

60%Possession58%
55%Territory48%
26%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.18
6.0%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Nassr FC, 5 for Al Hilal.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.