Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 17

Al-Faisaly

ALL

Al Riyadh

ALR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al-Faisaly51%
Draw25%
Al Riyadh24%

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.17

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 2–08.0%
  • 0–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession46%
35%Territory37%
19%From set plays14%
0.11Chance quality0.08
7.0%Directness5.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Al-Faisaly, 3 for Al Riyadh. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.