Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 17
Al-Faisaly
ALY
Al Riyadh
ALR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al-Faisaly39%
Draw29%
Al Riyadh32%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.14
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–110.1%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession38%
32%Territory27%
39%From set plays39%
0.11Chance quality0.07
6.4%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al-Faisaly, 4 for Al Riyadh.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.