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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 17

Al Ittihad

ALI

Al-Taawoun

ALW

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Ittihad67%
Draw20%
Al-Taawoun13%

Expected goals

2.07 – 0.81

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–012.3%
  • 2–012.1%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–19.3%
  • 3–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Al Ittihad will have the ball; Al-Taawoun will not mind.

56%Possession42%
47%Territory37%
9%From set plays40%
0.14Chance quality0.12
5.3%Directness6.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ittihad, 4 for Al-Taawoun. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.