Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 16
Al Shabab
ALS
Neom SC
NEO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Shabab48%
Draw26%
Neom SC25%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.11
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession55%
42%Territory40%
31%From set plays17%
0.15Chance quality0.09
5.3%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Shabab, 4 for Neom SC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.