Skip to content

Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 16

Al Khaleej

ALL

Al Diriyah

ALD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Khaleej32%
Draw28%
Al Diriyah39%

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.36

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.8%
  • 0110.8%
  • 109.5%
  • 008.9%
  • 128.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession45%
48%Territory38%
28%From set plays36%
0.07Chance quality0.14
6.0%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Khaleej, 4 for Al Diriyah.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.