Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 16
Al Ahli
ALA
Al-Ettifaq
ALE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli72%
Draw16%
Al-Ettifaq12%
Expected goals
2.62 – 1.03
Over 2.5
70%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.2%
- 2–09.2%
- 3–18.1%
- 3–07.6%
- 1–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession49%
45%Territory41%
20%From set plays30%
0.21Chance quality0.12
5.5%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ahli, 4 for Al-Ettifaq. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.