Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 16
Al Ahli
ALA
Al-Ettifaq
ALE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli71%
Draw17%
Al-Ettifaq12%
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.97
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–07.9%
- 3–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession54%
44%Territory48%
14%From set plays19%
0.17Chance quality0.08
5.3%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Al Ahli, 4 for Al-Ettifaq.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.