Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 15
Al Diriyah
ALD
Al-Fayha
ALF
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Diriyah46%
Draw28%
Al-Fayha26%
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.04
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession48%
44%Territory33%
18%From set plays17%
0.11Chance quality0.09
7.0%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Diriyah, 4 for Al-Fayha.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.