Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 15
Al Nassr FC
ALN
Al Shabab
ALS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Nassr FC62%
Draw20%
Al Shabab18%
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.16
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession57%
43%Territory42%
33%From set plays31%
0.15Chance quality0.15
4.7%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Nassr FC, 3 for Al Shabab. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.