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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 15

Al Kholood

ALK

Al Hilal

ALH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Al Kholood15%
Draw21%
Al Hilal64%

Expected goals

0.98 – 2.12

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–210.2%
  • 0–110.2%
  • 1–210.0%
  • 1–19.4%
  • 1–37.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

51%Possession58%
43%Territory48%
20%From set plays24%
0.16Chance quality0.18
6.0%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Kholood, 5 for Al Hilal.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.