Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 15
Al Ittihad
ALI
Al Ahli
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ittihad36%
Draw25%
Al Ahli39%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.68
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession52%
47%Territory45%
9%From set plays20%
0.14Chance quality0.21
5.3%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ittihad, 3 for Al Ahli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.