Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 15
Al Ittihad
ALI
Al Ahli
ALA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ittihad31%
Draw25%
Al Ahli44%
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.71
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession53%
47%Territory44%
9%From set plays14%
0.11Chance quality0.17
4.8%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Ittihad, 5 for Al Ahli.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al Ittihad
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.