Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 15
Abha
ABH
Al Riyadh
ALR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Abha44%
Draw28%
Al Riyadh28%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.09
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–09.3%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession46%
38%Territory37%
23%From set plays14%
0.09Chance quality0.08
8.0%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Abha, 3 for Al Riyadh. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.