Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 14
Al Shabab
ALS
Al-Ettifaq
ALE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Shabab60%
Draw21%
Al-Ettifaq19%
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.17
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession49%
42%Territory41%
31%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.12
5.3%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Shabab, 4 for Al-Ettifaq. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.