Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 14
Al Nassr FC
ALN
Al Qadsiah
ALQ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Nassr FC49%
Draw25%
Al Qadsiah26%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.21
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
60%Possession57%
55%Territory44%
26%From set plays13%
0.10Chance quality0.18
6.0%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Nassr FC, 4 for Al Qadsiah.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.