Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 14
Al Ahli
ALA
Al-Faisaly
ALL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli76%
Draw15%
Al-Faisaly9%
Expected goals
2.72 – 0.92
Over 2.5
69%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–08.7%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession49%
45%Territory35%
20%From set plays19%
0.21Chance quality0.11
5.5%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ahli, 5 for Al-Faisaly. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.