Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 14
Al Ahli
ALA
Al-Faisaly
ALY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli78%
Draw15%
Al-Faisaly8%
Expected goals
2.60 – 0.75
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–012.1%
- 3–010.1%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Al-Faisaly get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
53%Possession46%
44%Territory32%
14%From set plays39%
0.17Chance quality0.11
5.3%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Al Ahli, 4 for Al-Faisaly.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.