Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 13
Al Ittihad
ALI
Neom SC
NEO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ittihad51%
Draw27%
Neom SC22%
Expected goals
1.56 – 0.96
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–09.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession55%
47%Territory40%
9%From set plays17%
0.14Chance quality0.09
5.3%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Al Ittihad, 4 for Neom SC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.