Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 13
Al Fateh FC
ALT
Al Riyadh
ALR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Fateh FC46%
Draw25%
Al Riyadh29%
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.33
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession46%
43%Territory37%
24%From set plays14%
0.09Chance quality0.08
8.5%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Al Fateh FC, 3 for Al Riyadh. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 104 matches, not the full season.