Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 13
Abha
ABH
Al Shabab
ALS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Abha37%
Draw28%
Al Shabab35%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.30
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–08.5%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession49%
34%Territory47%
8%From set plays19%
0.09Chance quality0.10
7.4%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Abha, 4 for Al Shabab.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.