Saudi Pro League · Matchweek 13
Al Ahli
ALA
Al-Taawoun
ALW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Al Ahli75%
Draw15%
Al-Taawoun10%
Expected goals
2.69 – 0.92
Over 2.5
69%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–08.6%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession54%
44%Territory44%
14%From set plays13%
0.17Chance quality0.10
5.3%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Al Ahli, 4 for Al-Taawoun.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Al-Taawoun
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 33 of 63 matches, not the full season.